One third of the year is gone and the Markets are down a whopping 14%. Tech is already in a bear market and S&P 500 wants to go to 3850 in a hurry which is another 6% from here. Markets go up in a staircase and takes the elevator down and this has been especially true for the current year. March showed some promise and tried to undo the beating from Jan and Feb but failed miserably at 4600, a strong resistance level. So far the Market has been in a range between 4100-4600 but looks like a breakdown is imminent given the aggressive Fed that is determined to do whatever it takes to control the inflation beast. So how are we surviving? Given the volatility, we are juicing the premium by selling calls and puts in this choppy markets. This helps in consistently adjusting our cost basis till the Markets are stuck in a range. In a nutshell, on the higher end of the range, we sell calls and buy puts and at the lower end of the range we sell puts and buy calls. Markets have been pretty oversold and a bounce is expected but not before a capitulation to the 3850 level. That will flush out the weak hands and a great time to sell puts and buy calls. Essentially, the calls that we buy are funded by the puts that we sell. But this needs to be done carefully and not indiscriminately and we do that by monitoring the Market technicals and the on-going geopolitical changes.

Investing in the markets so far has been a Fools errand this year but Option strategies have saved the day so far. If you would like to know more about how we do what we do, please feel free to contact us for a 1 hour free consultation with no obligation. Hope to. make hay in May!

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There seems to be a never ending list of factors to be considered when it comes to investing, especially for a retail investor. Inflation is on the rise so staying in cash is not a viable option. Then what? Fortunately there is a way out. We have come up with an algorithm that works great, rain or shine! This involves various Option strategies where we collect premiums by selling Puts and Calls based on various factors like Market trends, Technicals (support and resistance levels) and volatility. When the volatility is high, premiums are high too and we just “juice it up”! By doing this consistently through out the year, we easily beat the Markets as they do not go up or down in a straight line. Our strategy takes advantage of the zig-zag volatile markets and we use the time to our advantage. For more information, please click here. For many who are close to retirement and rely on income generation with capital preservation, we customize this algorithm to their expected ROI (Return on Investment)

Our time tested algorithm, Kuber Gold, allows you to sleep peacefully at night and focus on your day time job while we make the most of your hard earned money. So are you ready to juice-it-up? Feel free to contact us for 1 hour free consultation with no obligation whatsoever.

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Markets was in a peril mode as all eyes were on the Fed chair, Jay Powell, who was expected to deliver a critical message on interest rate hikes to combat the rising inflation. When the policy statement hit the wires, everything looked normal as expected and by historical standards was considered very dovish. But then Jay Powell dropped the ball once again and exhibited his lack-luster communication skills by not providing any clarification that the Street was expecting regarding the rate hikes. Markets were priced in for 4 but Jay Powell did not address it specifically and left it open ended. That did it. Markets hate uncertainties and started selling off and we saw another 1000 point swing on the Dow. There was chaos everywhere as algorithms got fired (machine trading) and not many knew what to do. In situation like this money managers shoot first and think later but we kept our cool by sticking to our trades from Monday at the rock bottom prices! We knew that Jay Powell’s communication inability would be covered by other Federal representatives on the board in the next 24 hours and that’s exactly what happened but not with out huge volatility. Markets remained choppy but by the end of the week they came to a consensus and rallied hard in the close.

We don’t know what will next week bring but Markets were oversold and our experience shows that this are some of the best opportunities that cannot be missed. We may not be out of the woods yet and choppiness may continue but we are always hedged by various call/put strategies.

Bottomline, when there is blood on the street, just hold your nose, close your eyes and take a dive – Ready, Steady, Go!

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The runway seems to be clear as we enter the best months of the year with the S&P 500 already up a whopping 22% year to date. 10yr yield will continue to rise helping the Financials. Energy stocks would chug along as Crude keeps climbing with its sight set on 100. Infrastructure stocks like Construction, Materials & Steel should continue to get a bid as the Dems touts the Trillion dollar package. Consumers will be in spending mode with all the savings from the Govt. printing press. So does this mean a full-fledge rally into the end of the year with another 10-12% higher? Maybe, maybe not. When everyone is on one side of the boat, chances of tipping are high. Inflation is on the rise (although no one cares), Fed tapering is on the cards (but the Markets expect the Fed to be behind the curve). Chip shortage is causing a havoc for Companies like Apple, General Motors (but Market is hoping that this supply-chain issue will ease as Delta fades and ports open up). Labor shortage is still a big problem as the holiday season approaches and the likes of Amazon & Fedex are starving to recruit 100s of thousands in the short term. By the way, did anyone notice the weak GDP print last week? Well, we know that bad news is good for the Markets …

Long story short, will the Markets “treat” us into the end of the year with a nice rally or “trick” us with a pull back that no one is expecting, remains to be seen. Happy Halloween!

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Disney seems to be in a vulnerable position right now on the heels of Barclays downgrade, reeling against the rope at the 170 level once again which has been a big support for the last several months. Technically, when you revisit a strong support level few times, then either you bounce hard and move up or you breakdown and then this becomes a very difficult level to climb over (resistance). Netflix is reporting tomorrow so there numbers will definitely impact Disney shares. Currently everyone is in love with them right now but if they miss, then Disney will drop too and give up the 170 level for sure. If that happens, then the next major level would be 150 (unfortunately) as Sellers will come in herds, more so since Disney has been grappling with valuation concerns for quite some time. But one thing that keeps me guessing is what happens to all those HotStar subscribers that are expected to flow in to Disney bundle starting Jan 1, 2022? Wonder if Barclays is overlooking that and underestimating Disney magic remains to be seen.

We believe that Disney is a Reopening story and long term should fare well. We are long and staying long (our average price is 118) but will load the truck if it happens to kiss 150. Till then hope the Mouse says “Cheese”!

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Bottomline, just like the “Home Sellers” market when it comes to residential homes, it is a “Job Seekers” market when it comes to jobs. Now Wall Street is wondering if this disappointing job report will taper the tapering efforts of Mr. Powell. He would not move until the job market improves but the inflation dog is not far behind. What a dilemma!

Long story short, Markets will take this bad news as good news and keep rocking while the Employers keep wondering “Where have the Teletubbies gone?”

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Wait…what has gardening to do anything with Investing? Well, just like gardening, Investing is also an art. You selectively pick stocks based on technicals and fundamentals and build position over time. When the time is right, you start selling calls against your assets and collect premiums which in turn improves your cost basis. Just like the variety in your garden, you want to make sure your portfolio is also well diversified. Last, but not the least, you always have to watch out for value-traps (weeds) or else it can ruin the beauty (performance) of your entire garden (portfolio). Building positions is an art in itself. We normally do this in 4 steps. If we like something, we initiate a small position (10%) and then start monitoring the stock. If the stock dips due to Market conditions but there is no change in the business fundamentals. we keep adding to our position: 15%, then 25% and finally 50% to make a full circle. This is the way we come to 100% which normally is no more than 5% of the overall portfolio. During this process of dollar-cost-averaging, we make sure that the business fundamentals are still intact. As the stock appreciates and when the time is right, we start selling calls against that position and start juicing the Assets. As long as we own the stocks, we keep collecting the dividends too and all this improves our cost basis over a period of time. This process of asset building (10/15/25/50%) has worked very well over the past several years.

Well, can one do his own gardening or does one have to hire a gardener? It depends. If you have a full time job then it is better to leave this job to the Pros who will take care of your garden. Of course, they charge a fee to manage and keep your garden in great shape as they know the ins and out of the game just like you know your job very well. There are several factors like Quarterly earnings, change in competition, risk of regulation, share holder meetings and other important events like product launch or change in geo-politics that can affect your stock. Do you have the time for all this? Probably not.  A good gardener will always create a fence around your garden (asset protection by buying Puts or stop orders to sell) in case something unforeseen occurs.

So would you like to visit our garden? If yes, contact us for a free one hour consultation with no obligation whatsoever. If you like what we grow then maybe we can do some gardening for you too!

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Markets are watching the G20 event this weekend with bated breath and all eyes are on Trump/Xi meeting. Will there be just smiles and handshakes or will we see a real deal? The way the Markets closed in the last few minutes indicates that hopes are high this time around. Trump, as we all know considers Stock Market performance as a barometer of his success. If nothing, at the least he would come out and say we had a good time and talks went well but the Markets are looking for something more concrete this time. Hopefully he uses his “Trump” card and seals the deal.

After G20, the spotlight will quickly shift on our Fed Chair Mr. Powell I bet he is also watching the outcome of G20 with as much interest as Wall Street. If G20 falls short to deliver then Markets will expect the Fed to be much more hawkish with the rate cut. A quarter point rate cut is already baked in and the Markets are expecting half a point in the July meeting. But some Market pundits are weighing in that with unemployment at an all time low and economy doing just fine, would the Central bank chief go all out, remains to be seen.

Whether we see a breakout or breakdown depends entirely on the above two events. Hopefully a trade war resolution is on the cards this time, if not expect fireworks on Wall Street before the July 4th! Have a great weekend.

If you like to receive timely Market updates or interested in outlook of the Markets, consider subscribing to our WhatsApp Bot nicknamed Kuber! (Note: This link will work only from your Smartphone where WhatsApp is installed). Also, feel free to contact us if you need help with Investment services. We provide customized portfolio management service and offer one hour free consultation with no obligation!

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Hitherto the Markets have cleared all the major hurdles of 2600, 2700 and more recently the formidable 2800 where it failed several times. Now what? All eyes are set to reclaim the all time high of 2930 even though we hit a number of bad economic data last week. Puzzling? Yeah, but what’s the fuel behind this rally? Trump. He extended his March 1st deadline of trade resolution with China. Fed is dovish and some Market pundits are even dreaming of rate cuts going forward! Bears are eating crow as this rally grinds higher but it is interesting to see metals and utilities rise alongside the Markets. This happens when there is fear of crash and fear of missing out (FOMO) at the same time.

We were over sold in December and had the worst month ever in stock market history. Now we have one of the best rallies in almost three decades and it might very well end up being the best rally ever. Just like the weather, Markets are exhibiting extremities and the rally might march ahead as the Pied Piper (Mr. Trump) continues to play his tune.

If you like to receive timely Market updates or interested in outlook of the Markets, consider subscribing to our WhatsApp Bot nicknamed Kuber! (Note: This link will work only from your Smartphone where WhatsApp is installed). Also, feel free to contact us if you need help with Investment services. We offer one hour free consultation with no obligation whatsoever.

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That’s right. S&P has rallied hard from Christmas eve and now at the doorsteps of 200DMA (2739). It has to break above this to reclaim its previous high (2930) and beyond, but there are challenges. This breakout hinges on a 3 prong support.

A> Dovish Fed Reserve
B> Trade war resolution
c> Slowing Global growth

We have A checked so far with the Fed Chair Powell anchored for now. B is most likely going to happen in some form or other as it has got Trump’s put. He regards the Market as a barometer of his success. C is something beyond anyone’s control and all signs so far indicates that we are headed to a recession, although not sure when. But here is the interesting part. All the three factors are feeding into each other. The fear of a slowing global growth will keep the Fed at bay. Trade war resolution will happen or else everyone involved stands to lose in the long run and further jeopardize global growth.

Long story short, S&P is trading at 16 times multiple but fear of earnings recession is also simmering. Bears think that conditions are ripe for a pullback but the Bulls have the backing of Powell and Trump. While we wait for this tug of war to resolve, lets do another round of …

Knock Knock…
– who is there?
Investor
– Investor Who?
Investor who is confused whether to stay long or go short!

If you like to receive timely Market updates or interested in outlook of the Markets, consider subscribing to our WhatsApp Bot nicknamed Kuber! (Note: This link will work only from your Smartphone where WhatsApp is installed). Also, feel free to contact us if you need help with Investment services. We offer one hour free consultation with no obligation whatsoever.

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